In Dixville Notch, N.H., in 2008, Tom Tillotson (center) watches together Donna Kaye Erwin casts the very first ballot for the nation"s first primary. The year, the tiny city picked Barack Obama end Hillary Clinton, 7-2; but Clinton went on to victory the state primary.
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They say once Punxsutawney Phil watch his shadow, it means six much more weeks of winter.
When Dixville Notch, in the far northern will of brand-new Hampshire, voted just after midnight Tuesday, that didn"t predict eight more months that Donald Trump.
But similar to Pennsylvania"s groundhog, the results — 3 votes for man Kasich, the just candidate to visit the town, and two for Trump, along with four because that Bernie Sanders and zero because that Hillary Clinton — space not necessarily predictive.
The town"s 100 percent turnout is quite impressive, if girlfriend don"t take into consideration that that hit the 38-vote top in 1988, according to The Boston Globe. (The Globe likewise reported that just 10 will certainly vote in the town this year.)
These couple of votes will make headlines Tuesday morning, together they perform every four years.
But Dixville Notch has actually proven much less than reputable at predicting what will occur later that day as the remainder of the state wakes up and also waits hrs to cast their ballots.
So why all the attention? due to the fact that it"s proven to be pretty great at predicting what will occur later that spring (better than the groundhog). The tiny hill town close to the Canadian border, v a population that has actually dwindled to 12, has actually the difference of properly predicting the ultimate Republican nominee in every election since 1968.
(There have actually been 2 ties in its history, though — in 1980 in between George H.W. Bush, that did not become the nominee, and also Ronald Reagan, who, that course, did; and in 2012, between Mitt Romney and ... Jon Huntsman, who obtained two votes each.)
That predictive power explains why Dixville Notch"s results could get an ext attention beforehand Tuesday than the other two towns to vote at midnight.
In adjacent Millsfield, regional Republicans gave half their 18 votes to Ted Cruz and also three come Donald Trump when scattering the remaining votes throughout six candidates, including recent dropout edge Paul. Clinton got two votes over there to Sanders" one.
Hart"s Location, furthermore south, is the third town the has cast ballots. Kasich got five votes there, trump four, kris Christie two, and also Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio obtained one each. ~ above the democratic side, Bernie Sanders acquired 12 votes if Clinton acquired seven. Mark Stewart Greenstein, a autonomous candidate indigenous the Live free or dice Alliance, additionally got two votes.
The very early count, throughout all three towns: Kasich 9, Cruz 9, trump card 9, Christie 3, Rubio 2, shrub 2, and also one each because that Carson, Fiorina and also Paul; Sanders 17, Clinton 9.
A Town"s Rough major Record
In 2008 in Dixville Notch, Barack Obama winner 7-2, despite Hillary Clinton went on to victory the primary later on that night. In 2000, George W. Shrub took Dixville"s primary, though man McCain take it the state. Four years ago, Huntsman bound Romney. And Wesley Clark topped the votes on the democratic side in 2004.
After Obama"s landslide five-vote victory in 2008, FiveThirtyEight"s Nate silver bluntly assessed even if it is Dixville Notch to be at every predictive in primaries.
"In a word: No," silver- wrote. "There"s no historical relationship between the performances of the two major-party candidates in Dixville Notch and their performances in the remainder of new Hampshire — never ever mind the remainder of the country."
Of this year"s presidential hopefuls, so much only Republican candidate man Kasich has visited the town.
As provided above, two various other communities, Millsfield and also Hart"s Location, also take component in the midnight heritage Tuesday. Hart"s Location began midnight vote in 1948, despite it offered it up for plenty of years beginning in 1964. A state law enables any little town with fewer than 100 voters to open polls at midnight and also close castle as shortly as all registered voter have actors ballots.
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Political nerds and also Aaron Sorkin fans might remember the West soup episode, "Hartsfield"s Landing," a fictitious nod come these small towns in brand-new Hampshire. In it, Deputy chief of employee Josh Lyman explains the small town that 42 civilization (Hart"s Location has actually 41) the votes in ~ 12:01 a.m. And reports outcomes at 12:07 a.m., providing the push something come talk about for 21 hours before anything else happens. In ~ the finish of the episode, a reporter defines the scene at the ballot location:
"Two roads, no web traffic lights, a filing cabinet and a countertop in the clerk"s basement. However Hartsfield"s Landing, brand-new Hampshire, is whereby democracy starts for the world"s just superpower. It"s 12:01 a.m., and also the registrar of voters — who"s additionally the principal and only teacher in ~ the Hartsfield"s college — phone call the role of voters."
On the show, the fictional town had correctly suspect the presidential choice — not just the Republican nominee — every year since William Howard Taft.