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Before the season, we provided the odds because that every continuing to be character ~ above Game the Thrones dying prior to show’s end. And while the White Walkers can be defeated, the fight of King’s Landing looms while significant players space scheming over who will preeminence the 7 Kingdoms. Through so countless unanswered questions and also dangers still left to deal with in the last two episodes, we’re looking in ~ what we gained right and also wrong and updating everyone’s odds on make it the end alive.

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To recognize a character’s chance of dying, we thought about their importance to the story, how exposed they room to direct risk (on the battlefield or from someone else), and also the emotional impact their death would have. We’re not factoring in exactly how every human could die if the Night King lives, but that’s a an extremely real possibility.

Hot Pie

Before the season premiere: Few minor personalities are as beloved as hot Pie, and killing him would certainly be gratuitous. But he’s not entirely out the the woods if the White Walkers make their way through Westeros. He’s made it through before, however he’s not precisely a fighter or fleet the foot. Still, he might be together safe as anyone ~ above the show, but that’s far from a insurance to live. Odds of dying: 20%

UPDATE: Maybe we will certainly see hot Pie again now that Arya is ago on the roadway heading south, however with the White Walkers gone, that seems entirely safe. New odds that dying: 0%


Before the season premiere: Precious Podrick Payne is loyal and brave, and that’s what scares us. He’s among the many likable, purely great people in Westeros, which method he’s willing to provide up his life to conserve others—plus, he won’t run from the White Walkers. We have actually a negative feeling around Podrick, but after training through Brienne, he has a fighting chance. Odds the dying: 65%

UPDATE: A fighting spirit and solid plot armor aided him make it through the long Night, and also with Brienne remaining North he have to be safe. New odds of dying: 0%

Ellaria Sand

Before the season premiere: Ellaria might currently be dead in the Red Keep’s dungeons, but more likely she’s being maintained alive for this reason Cersei can proceed torturing her. Even if/when King’s Landing is taken, us can’t imagine Cersei letting Ellaria live. Odds the dying: 99%

UPDATE: Cersei’s murder of Missandei proved what type of mercy her adversaries can expect. That little shred of expect we had for Ellaria passed away with the Mountain’s deadly blow.

New odds of dying: 100%

Lyanna Mormont

Before the season premiere: “I don’t plan on web by the fire while men fight for me,” Lyanna has actually said. “I might be small, mr Glover, and I could be a girl, but I to be every little as much a Northerner as you. And also I don’t require your permission to protect the North.” our advice: be mentally prepared to check out young Lyanna bravely dice in battle, only to clock her increase as a soldier in the military of the dead. It will still destroy you, however at the very least it won’t blindside you prefer “Hold the door.” Odds of dying: 50%

UPDATE: DEAD. But she go out favor a tiny boss, death a large wight in her final moments.

Yara Greyjoy

Before the season premiere: The good news? Theon is comes to her rescue. The poor news? Theon is comes to her rescue. A captive of she crazy uncle Euron, we choose her opportunities slightly an ext than Ellaria Sand’s, yet we’re not confident overall. Euron can’t let her live. Odds that dying: 80%

UPDATE: We never thought Euron would certainly let she slip away, i beg your pardon is why we were so low on her chances of living. Now we think she could head ago to King’s Landing to help Daenerys hit him, for this reason she’s not out the the woods yet. New odds the dying: 50%

The Mountain

Before the season premiere: His fatality at the hand of his brothers The Hound has actually been foreshadowed since season one, which means we need to all be all set for the hill to kill the Hound instead. The won’t be sufficient to conserve this monster zombie, though. Cersei’s personal guard is too huge a target—both literally and also metaphorically—to make it the end alive. Odds that dying: 90%

UPDATE: Not lot has changed other than the Hound enduring the fight through the dead and also leaving because that King’s Landing come fight his brother. That bump this up also higher. New odds of dying: 95%


Before the season premiere: As a loyal adviser and confidant to Daenerys, she’s constantly in danger, however indirectly. Also, Missandei’s fatality would it is in upsetting yet not devastating, i beg your pardon strangely rises her possibilities of living. She’s no out the the woods, but she’s in a far better spot than most. Odds of dying: 40%

UPDATE: DEAD. We got nearly everything about this wrong. She to be in straight danger since of her place with Daenerys, and her fatality was devastating.

Grey Worm

Before the season premiere: The thing of Missandei’s heart isn’t nearly as safe. The leader of the Unsullied will certainly be in constant danger, and his dedication to his queen method he will give his life to safeguard hers. Hopefully Grey Worm’s formidable skills in battle will be sufficient to save him alive. Odds the dying: 75%

UPDATE: He still has a significant war to fight, yet now he’s shed the person he to plan to invest the remainder of his life with. His desire because that vengeance provides him much less safe. New odds that dying: 95%


Before the season premiere: This nut has traveled the world and faced plenty of dangers. He has actually the greatest fleet and Ironborn come fight for him, and yet his alliance v Cersei will certainly likely end up through him dead, either as soon as the White Walkers present up or once Daenerys rain dragonflame on him. Euron’s fatality will be one of the most satisfying. Odds that dying: 95%

UPDATE: He eliminated the mommy of Dragon’s child. That’s a hell the a big target to placed on yourself. New odds that dying: 100%


Before the season premiere: Qyburn fan his an effective position entirely to Cersei, however he’s smart. If the mad Queen’s reason is totally lost he could get out while he still can. Odds of dying: 70%

UPDATE: We no longer think there’s everywhere for him come escape to after Missandei’s execution. Even if he turns on Cersei the won’t be forgiven for his business to her. We’ll offer him a tiny chance of living just since he’s therefore cunning. New odds the dying: 95%


Before the season premiere: Gendry showed he was willing and also able to fight as soon as he went past the wall surface on Jon’s wight-hunting expedition, which has actually us worried. However, his odds the dying would certainly be higher if not for the reality he’s the last living kid of Robert Baratheon. That renders him a real candidate because that the steel Throne, which increases his chances of living. Odds the dying: 70%

UPDATE: Now Gendry Baratheon, he appears slightly safer in the paper definition of the show, yet all the same reasons we believed he could die fighting the White Walkers are why he might die fighting Cersei. New odds the dying: 50%

Beric Dondarrion

Before the season premiere: He thinks the mr of irradiate has carried him back for a reason, yet with Thoros that Myr dead, Beric no longer has actually a “get the end of Death” map to play. With the good War here, it’s time because that this soldier the god to climb to the occasion and also sacrifice everything. He’s a certain bet to it is in killed. Odds that dying: 100%

UPDATE: DEAD. Nailed it!


Before the season premiere: “I will certainly return, too ~ Spider, one critical time. I need to die in this weird country.” like Beric, Melisandre has offered her life come the mr of Light. Currently with eternal darkness threaten the world, we think her once she states she will certainly come earlier to Westeros to dice in the ultimate cause. Also, old people don’t choose the cold. That’s why they move to Florida. Odds the dying: 100%

UPDATE: DEAD. Room we prophets?


Before the season premiere: The last part of Melisandre’s quote to Varys around dying in this strange nation is the ominous heat “…just choose you.” We’ve learned that red priestesses often tend to know way too much about Varys, so this worries us. That won’t be on the battlefield, however he won’t be much from the action either. If not for the Spider’s decades-long track document of surviving, we’d take Melisandre’s words as a guarantee. Odds the dying: 70%

UPDATE: Planning to betray a dragon-owning Tagaryen who already distrusts you? not smart. Melisandre was right. New odds the dying: 100%

Jorah Mormont

Before the season premiere: We’re not convinced he’s really cured of greyscale, however it might not matter when he’s on the battlefield. He’s a fighter who has seen the risk up close. Plus we recognize he’ll give his life to conserve Daenerys, and she and also her dragons are going to be a element target the the White Walkers. He’ll carry out anything to save her. Odds the dying: 95%

UPDATE: DEAD. “He’ll perform anything to conserve her,” and he did.

Davos Seaworth

Before the season premiere: Davos has lived with Blackwater, the battle of the Bastards, and a coup through the Night’s Watch. He states he’s not lot of a fighter, however he’s a survivor. He’s right close to the action though, so we’re worried. Odds of dying: 65%

UPDATE: We recognize he’ll be in ~ the battle of King’s Landing, and being a loyal servant come Jon eye is now more dangerous 보다 ever since his secret birth is being learned by others. Still, us feel far better about Davos than before, though no totally. New odds that dying: 50%

Gilly and tiny Sam

Before the season premiere: Gilly is additionally at Winterfell now, but Sam will constantly make sure to send her and little Sam what safe. We understand the display is qualified of death a mother and her child, but we think Gilly and her boy are most likely to it is in okay. Odds that dying: 20%

UPDATE: And us didn’t even know she was transporting another small one. They have to be entirely out the the woods now. New odds that dying: 0%

Samwell Tarly

Before the season premiere: Sam the Slayer is Jon’s most loyal friend, and also now the they’ll be reunited we doubt they will break-up up again—not as soon as the White Walkers room at hand and also Sam is an invaluable source of information and also research. Sam has been just one of the show’s finest underdogs because his first appearance, which is why the show might ruin us currently by killing him off. Still, his survival feels like a coin flip. Odds the dying: 50%

UPDATE: Papa Samwell deserve to now return house as the lord of Horn Hill and maybe even as Warden of the south if Daenerys or Jon sit top top the steel Throne. New odds of dying: 0%

Brienne the Tarth

Before the season premiere: Brienne could be the finest fighter in the world, yet she has sworn an oath to defend the stark girls. That considerably increases her chances of dice bravely. She’s among our favorites, i beg your pardon unfortunately cut both ways when we envision that the display would take it from us so close come the finale. Odds the dying: 60%

UPDATE: How she survived the White Walkers we’ll never ever know, and since she’s no going to dice of a damaged heart we think she’s safe at King’s Landing protecting Sansa. New odds the dying: 0%

Theon Greyjoy

Before the season premiere: Who would you gambling on in a fight between Euron and also Theon? Exactly. Rescuing Yara can be a suicide mission, however even if it’s not there are several other methods Theon could finally satisfy his end. Odds the dying: 90%

UPDATE: DEAD. Us were right to be so short on his odds, but for the dorn reason. Rescuing Yara was surprisingly easy, yet killing the Night King wasn’t. Well, it wasn’t easy for him.

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Before the season premiere: Jaime is gone and Cersei think he betrayed her. If Bronn wasn’t as smart, cunning, and skilled as he is we’d placed his odds that Cersei removed his head at 100%. Instead we’re leaving a little room for him to ultimately get his castle. Odds the dying: 90%

UPDATE: We didn’t intend Cersei to put him come work, however trying to double-cross her now by letting the Lannister brothers trumped her market is just as dangerous. Plus castle don’t trust him currently either. New odds that dying: 95%

The Hound

Before the season premiere: An unlikely pan favorite, The Hound has actually proven challenging to kill. However, if he’s determined to finally confront his brother, his odds that winning that fight room 50/50 in ~ best. Considering he’s likely to aid battle the White Walkers first, his odds are also worse. Odds of dying: 75%

UPDATE: He survived the dead, so earlier to a coin upper and lower reversal it is. New odds that dying: 50%

Tormund Giantsbane

Before the season premiere: We believed we lost him as soon as at the Frozen Lake, and also again as soon as the Night King struck the Wall, however somehow the made it out both times. Tormund will never run from a fight, and also he’s prepared to hit the dead. Yet as experienced as he is, every this makes a disastrous death an ext likely than not. Odds of dying: 65%

UPDATE: Free and clear and also owner that a huge ole direworld, Tormund is safe now that he’s return to the true north. New odds the dying: 0%

Arya Stark

Before the season premiere: The great thing for Arya is she can quickly hide among enemies. Unfortunately that won’t assist her v the White Walkers. (You can’t wear a challenge of ice, right?) A highly expert fighter, she’ll it is in in the middle of the great War, however we prefer her odds an ext than most. Unless of course we’re in refusal of the inevitable because we couldn’t handle it. Odds the dying: 50%

UPDATE: “The an excellent thing because that Arya is she can conveniently hide amongst enemies.” 7 hells walk we get THAT right, just please (please please please) overlook the next sentence. Night King killer or not, her quest to death Cersei method she might still die, however we feel much far better about her possibilities of living now. New odds that dying: 20%

Sansa Stark

Before the season premiere: She has actually the very same odds as her sister, but for a different reason. We don’t expect to check out Sansa close to the front, but she’s not going to it is in far. Even if the north stops the White Walkers, Cersei is still out there, and also she no Sansa. Ned’s daughters space both survivors though, so they have actually a chance. Odds of dying: 50%

UPDATE: If Cersei wins the battle of King’s Landing, Sansa i do not care her height target, however even that happens (we don’t think that will), the Lady that Winterfell is much away and also a survivor. She’s safe. New odds that dying: 0%

Bran Stark

Before the season premiere: The new Three-Eyed crow is the single most valuable weapon in the world, not due to the fact that he might be able to warg into a dragon (oh yeah), but since he has accessibility to storage from all of history. He might be the just one who can uncover out just how to avoid the White Walkers, which is why he’ll need to be safeguarded at every costs. That also makes him a huge target though, and it additionally doesn’t help that he’s confined come a wheelchair. The phibìc will have to flee if the White Walkers take Winterfell. Odds the dying: 60%

UPDATE: The just thing we acquired right below was the Bran to be a “huge target.” now he’s for sure to it is in vague and also totally helpless under less dire circumstances. New odds the dying: 0%

Jaime Lannister

Before the season premiere: Jaime is heading phibìc to save his vow come fight the White Walkers. Win one. He’s hated by anyone in the North, and really many of Westeros. Strike two. Cersei think he has committed treason. Win three. Will certainly Jaime certainly die? No, yet his chances of enduring aren’t good. Odds that dying: 85%

UPDATE: That goodbye with Brienne felt choose a last farewell. It could be optimistic offering him anything much less than a guarantee death, but we’re leave a tiny chance for the to obtain away from his angry twin prior to it’s also late. New odds of dying: 95%

Cersei Lannister

Before the season premiere: On any type of other show we’d be confident the angry queen would finally get her comeuppance, however Game the Thrones isn’t any other show. It will be hard even for Cersei to make it through both the White Walkers and Daenerys’ dragons, so us still think she’s far an ext likely to die, even if there’s a opportunity she’s the just one come live. Odds of dying: 90%

UPDATE: It’s exceptional what a cadre of giant crossbows, the fatality of a dragon, and your opponent being cut in fifty percent by the White Walkers will carry out for her chances. Regrettably for Cersei both one army and a face-swapping Night King killer is coming for her. Her possibilities of life feel together tenuous as ever. New odds that dying: quiet 90%

Tyrion Lannister

Before the season premiere: Like Arya, we might be placing his odds of dying also low due to the fact that we don’t desire to think he can die. He’s brave, but we doubt he’ll be at the front of any battle. Cersei also wants that dead, together will numerous Northeners that will just see him together a Lannister who killed his father. Tyrion is in ~ risk, however we’re not offering up every hope yet. Odds of dying: 65%

UPDATE: He will be at the front because that the fight of King’s Landing, however we’re worried around him also entertaining the idea that betraying Daenerys. He’s no safer now than that was before the season. New odds the dying: quiet 65%

Daenerys Targaryen

Before the season premiere: Dragons might be the only means to loss the White Walkers, which renders her arguably the element target of the Night King. Daenerys might be the ultimate victor and mankind’s just hope, yet that could be true and she might still die. Odds that dying: 70%

UPDATE: The White Walkers couldn’t stop her, however Euron Greyjoy killed Rhaegal, i m sorry zero human being would have actually predicted. Even worse 보다 the death of her dragon though is the everyone about her, except for Jon, unexpectedly doesn’t believe in her. We’re officially worried for Daenerys for a lot of reasons. New odds of dying: 80%

Jon Snow

Before the season premiere: Just prefer Daenerys, he is perhaps the Prince the Was Promised and mankind’s best chance of avoiding the darkness, which could still median death. Jon has shown a willingness to offer up his life to conserve others, which also worries us. His fighting heart is why us think he’s a best risk than his to ~ aunt. Odds that dying: 80%

UPDATE: Jon, whom anyone loves despite yet an additional terrible fight performance, feels safer than he has actually in a long time. Because that him that still way a decent opportunity of dying, either in fight or by saving the woman he loves. New odds the dying: 50%

(The odds of both Jon and Daenerys living? Zero percent. UPDATE: quiet TRUE )

The Night King

Before the season premiere: We don’t think the White Walkers will win, but they might win. The only way that happens is if the Night King lives, for this reason his odds of dice reflect the odds that the dead winning. Odds that dying: 85%

UPDATE: DEAD. The genuine surprise was how quickly it happened.

Explore the rich, complicated, and controversial lore the George R. R. Martin’s A song of Ice and also Fire — and also how that connects come HBO’s Game of Thrones — in our deep dive series, History that Thrones.