These are the singles most likely to be nominated for document of the year when the 64th yearly Grammy nominations room announced top top Nov. 23.

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When the 64th annual Grammy nominations room announced in a livestream on Nov. 23, two singles space all but specific to be in the to run for document of the year: Olivia Rodrigo’s breakthrough smash “Drivers License” and Silk Sonic’s R&B throwback “Leave the Door Open.”




For the first time in 27 years, the final choices in every of the huge Four category — album, record and also song that the year plus best new artist — will certainly be make by the about 12,000 poll members of the recording Academy. The Academy disbanded all of its nominations testimonial committees, including the one that figured out the finalists in the huge Four categories. (The members of that committee had actually been empowered to pick anything they want from the voters’ peak 20 choices.)

How will certainly the Academy’s decision come send that is committees packing affect the nominations? extremely commercial singles such as BTS’ “Butter” and also Ed Sheeran’s “Bad Habits” may have actually a far better chance with consistent voters 보다 they would have actually with the committee, which sometimes tended to it is in snooty about such advertisement fare. The committee passed end BTS’ “Dynamite” for a record of the year nod last year and Sheeran’s megahit “Shape of You” for a nod in the top classification four years ago.

Regular voter may additionally be more inclined to poll for live version of hits wherein the studio versions aren’t eligible. Live execution of Måneskin’s “Beggin’,” Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves” and also 24kGoldn’s “Mood (featuring iann dior) are entered this year due to the fact that the studio versions to be released prior to the Sept. 1, 2020, start of the eligibility year. The committee didn’t offer record the the year nominations come live recordings that Train’s “Hey, heart Sister,” Adele’s “Set Fire to the Rain” or Pharrell’s “Happy,” however all those live recordings walk on to success Grammys in power categories. Continual voters don’t it seems to be ~ to notice or care around that “(Live)” designation.


Justin Bieber is a top competitor with two hits: “Peaches” (which features Daniel Caesar and also GIVĒON) and also “Stay” (a collab through The son LAROI). Both can receive record of the year nods, or just one could, or neither could. But Bieber won’t have actually three document of the year contenders. Despite he’s featured on a struggle remix the Wizkid’s “Essence” (which likewise features Tems), he isn’t credited on the variation that was gotten in in this category.

GIVĒON, Cardi B, SZA and Doja Cat room in a similar situation. Castle could also each get two document of the year nods this year, combining lead and featured credits, or one, or none.

Five songs the were performed on the 63rd yearly Grammy Awards line in March space eligible for document of the year nods this year. They room Silk Sonic’s “Leave the Door Open,” the bad Bunny/Jhay Cortez collab “Dákiti,” Taylor Swift’s “Willow,” Cardi B’s “Up” and also Megan Thee Stallion’s “Body.” (The latter three songs to be performed in medleys.)


Adele’s “Easy ~ above Me,” which has Grammy written almost everywhere it, was released after ~ the Sept. 30, 2021, eligibility cut-off. Dua Lipa’s “Levitating” isn’t eligible because it was featured on one album that won a Grammy last year. The Weeknd, snubbed in last year’s Grammy nominations, didn’t submit any kind of of his own records in this category, though he is featured top top one gone into recording: Kanye West’s “Hurricane,” which also features Lil Baby.

So which eight singles space most most likely to wind increase with record of the year nods? right here are our ideal bets, complied with by eight height alternates and then 20 longer-shot possibilities. They’re listed alphabetically by artist within each section. We likewise show what performance group the monitor is gone into in top top the Grammy ballot. (Nominations in those power categories space not assured. This just shows where they’re competing.)


The eight likely nominees:

BTS, “Butter”: This slickly developed smash topped the hot 100 because that 10 weeks, much longer than any other single in the eligibility period. It would be a historic nomination: the an initial K-pop hit come land a record of the year nod. This is BTS’ just entry in the category. “Life walk On,” “Permission come Dance” and also “My Universe,” a collab with Coldplay, all of which likewise topped the hot 100, room not entered. (That was a smart move. Otherwise, BTS might have split its votes 4 ways.) power category: finest pop duo/group performance.


Doja Cat feat. SZA, “Kiss Me More”: This silky smash, i m sorry climbed together high together No. 3 top top the warm 100, could lug a second record of the year nod to both artists. Doja Cat was nominated critical year because that “Say So”; SZA to be a finalist 3 years earlier for “All the Stars,” a collab through Kendrick Lamar. If “Kiss Me More” is nominated, this would be the 2nd year in a heat that an all-female collab has made the finals. The Megan Thee Stallion/Beyoncé pairing “Savage” to be nominated critical year. This would mark the first time in Grammy history that all-female collabs have actually been nominated in the top classification in back-to-back years. Power category: best pop duo/group performance.

Billie Eilish, “Happier than Ever”: This hit, which builds from a gentle, ukulele-strumming opening to crunching pop/rock, has actually climbed as high as No. 11 on the warm 100. This would certainly be Eilish’s third consecutive year through a document of the year nod. She won two years ago with “Bad Guy” and also won again last year through “Everything i Wanted.” Eilish would come to be just the 5th artist in Grammy background to land record of the year nods 3 or more years running. Candid Sinatra leads v a four-year streak (1958-61). Roberta Flack (1972-74), Steve Winwood (1986-88) and Post Malone (2018-20) each had actually three-year streaks. Performance category: ideal pop solo performance.


Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me by her Name)”: be honest: once the chart-busting “Old town Road” was nominated in this category two year ago, did friend think Lil Nas X would ever before make it ago to the record of the year finals? He’s going to. This single, which gone into the hot 100 in ~ No. 1 in April, is virtually as much a certain thing together the Rodrigo and also Silk Sonic smashes. This is Lil Nas X’s just entry in the category. “Industry Baby,” a collab with Jack Harlow which likewise topped the warm 100, isn’t entered. Power category: ideal pop solo performance.

Måneskin, “Beggin’ (Live)”: This muscular struggle is together a striking and also distinctive single, it can land a nomination even though it has yet to cracked the peak 10 ~ above the hot 100. (It has actually climbed as high as No. 13.) Måneskin would be the first rock band to land a record of the year nod due to the fact that Imagine Dragons scored eight years ago with “Radioactive.” (The Grammys divide Twenty One Pilots” “Stressed Out,” a 2016 document of the year nominee, together pop.) performance category: ideal rock performance.


Olivia Rodrigo, “Drivers License”: Rodrigo, 18, would certainly be among the youngest mrs solo stars ever before nominated in this category. Lorde and also Eilish were every 17 once they to be nominated for “Royals” and also “Bad Guy,” respectively. Eilish and also Monica were each 18 once they were nominated because that “Everything ns Wanted” and “The boy Is Mine” (a collab through Brandy), respectively. This is Rodrigo’s just entry in the category. “Good 4 U,” which, prefer “Drivers License,” gotten in the hot 100 in ~ No. 1, isn’t entered. Power category: ideal pop solo performance.


Silk Sonic, “Leave the Door Open”: This would certainly be Bruno Mars’ sixth nomination in this category and Anderson .Paak’s first. A 6th nod would placed Mars in rarefied company. Just Sinatra and also Beyoncé have had that countless nominations in this category. (Sinatra had actually seven, a total Beyoncé matched last year with twin nods because that “Savage” and also “Black Parade.”) Mars, who was previously nominated for document of the year for collabs v B.o.B and also Mark Ronson, would end up being just the third artist in Grammy background to be nominated in this group with three collabs. The first two were Jay-Z (with Beyoncé, Rihanna and Alicia Keys) and also Rihanna (with Jay-Z, Eminem and also Drake). Performance category: ideal R&B performance.

Wizkid feat. Tems, “Essence”: This mellow, sexy monitor is specifically the type of record the committee would have actually tried to do room for. The question currently is even if it is it has actually been a huge enough struggle for continual voters come have discovered it. (It has climbed as high together No. 9 top top the warm 100.) The fight is likely to be the an initial winner in the new best an international music performance category. Power category: best worldwide music performance.


The eight optimal alternates:

Justin Bieber feat. Daniel Caesar & GIVĒON, “Peaches.” power category: ideal R&B performance.

GIVĒON, “Heartbreak Anniversary.” performance category: ideal R&B performance.

Ariana Grande, “Positions.” power category: best pop solo performance.


H.E.R., “Fight because that You.” performance category: ideal traditional R&B performance.

The child LAROI & Justin Bieber, “Stay.” power category: none.

Ed Sheeran, “Bad Habits.” power category: ideal pop solo performance.

Taylor Swift, “Willow.” performance category: ideal pop solo performance.

Kali Uchis, “”Telepatía.” power category: ideal pop solo performance.


20 an ext singles that have actually a great chance:

Bad bunny feat. Jhay Cortez, “Dákiti.” power category: none.

Cardi B, “Up.” performance category: best rap performance.

Brandi Carlile, “Right ~ above Time.” power category: best pop solo performance.

Luke Combs, “Forever after ~ All.” power category: best country solo performance.

Glass Animals, “Heat Wave” (Live). performance category: finest pop duo/group performance.

Mickey Guyton, “Remember she Name.” performance category: best country solo performance.

Halsey, “I Am no a Woman, I’m a God.” power category: ideal pop solo performance.

Walker Hayes, “Fancy Like.” power category: ideal country solo performance.

Lizzo feat. Cardi B, “Rumors.” power category: finest pop duo/group performance.

Kacey Musgraves, “Camera Roll.” performance category: finest country solo performance.

Normani feat. Cardi B, “Wild Side.” performance category: best R&B performance.

Carly Pearce, “29.” performance category: best country solo performance.

Polo G, “Rapstar.” performance category: ideal rap performance.

Saweetie feat. Doja Cat, “Best Friend.” performance category: best melodic rap performance.

Travis Scott feat. Young Thug & M.I.A., “Franchise.” performance category: ideal melodic lab performance.

Bruce Springsteen, “Letter come You.” power category: best rock performance.

Jazmine Sullivan, “Pick Up her Feelings.” power category: ideal R&B performance.

SZA, “Good Days.” power category: ideal R&B performance.


24kGoldn feat. Iann dior, “Mood” (Live). performance category: best pop duo/group performance.

Kanye West feat. The Weeknd & Lil Baby, “Hurricane.” performance category: best melodic lab performance.

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Postscript:We focused on just 36 singles here. That pipeline 1,136 singles on the master eligibility list that we didn’t also mention. Store that in mind the next time someone states “It’s an honor simply to be nominated.” That’s no an empty platitude; it’s the truth.